Artifical Intelligence Predictions & Odds· 796 markets

W
What will Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly?

86%

Terror / Terrorism

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T
TIME Person of the Year 2026

TIME Person of the Year 2026

33%

Zohran Mamdani

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10
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What will Netanyahu say during the United Nations General Assembly?

91%

Israel 10+ times

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What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (September 23)

96%

Money

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What will Cracker Barrel say during their next earnings call?

98%

Quarter 15+ times

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What will BlackBerry say during their next earnings call?

98%

Quarter 15+ times

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OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

34%

December 31, 2026

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OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

59%

OpenAI

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O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

14%

Yes

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Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

28%

Google

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C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

33%

Yes

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Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

26%

OpenAI

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A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

47%

October 31

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S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

52%

Anthropic

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Trump renames AI by September 30?

Trump renames AI by September 30?

6%

Yes

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Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

50%

Other

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Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of November?

81%

OpenAI

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#
#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

50%

Other

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#3 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

#3 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

50%

Other

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S
Supreme Court accepts AI copyright case before 2027?

10%

Yes

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