Artifical Intelligence Predictions & Odds· 118 markets

W
What will Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly?

85%

Terror / Terrorism

$24k Vol.
$16k Liq.
2
Ends in 2 days
W
What will Netanyahu say during the United Nations General Assembly?

90%

Nuclear

$6k Vol.
$4k Liq.
1
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T
TIME Person of the Year 2026

TIME Person of the Year 2026

35%

Zohran Mamdani

$53k Vol.
$503k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
W
What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (September 23)

96%

Money

$2k Vol.
$2k Liq.
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W
What will BlackBerry say during their next earnings call?

98%

Quarter 15+ times

$823 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
W
What will Cracker Barrel say during their next earnings call?

98%

Quarter 15+ times

$955 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 days
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

34%

December 31, 2026

$1k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

57%

OpenAI

$491 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

14%

Yes

$264k Vol.
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30
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W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

29%

Google

$58k Vol.
$58k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

34%

Yes

$284 Vol.
$305 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

26%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

47%

October 31

$4k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

52%

Anthropic

$5k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

50%

Other

$3k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
A
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?

69%

Anthropic

$180 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in over 2 years
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

60%

Anthropic

$25k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

50%

Other

$40k Vol.
$13k Liq.
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W
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of November?

81%

OpenAI

$4k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
S
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of November?

Second-best AI Agent Lab end of November?

51%

OpenAI

$5k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 2 months