AI Regulation Predictions & Odds· 114 markets

U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

12%

Yes

$173k Vol.
$42k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

39%

Yes

$742 Vol.
$265 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

14%

December 31

$9k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

16%

OpenAI

$11k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?

Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?

7%

Yes

$453 Vol.
$837 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
Supreme Court accepts AI copyright case before 2027?

12%

Yes

$300 Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
FTC opens investigation into AI book destruction in 2026?

21%

Yes

$358 Vol.
$86 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

5%

Yes

$43k Vol.
$33k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

17%

Yes

$38k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

17%

Yes

$275k Vol.
$17k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

14%

Meta

$4k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
#
#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

50%

Other

$12k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
#
#3 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

#3 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

50%

Other

$13k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
#
#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)

#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)

50%

Company A

$33k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

21%

October 31

$5k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
#
#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)

#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)

50%

Company A

$43k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
T
Trump renames AI by...?

Trump renames AI by...?

52%

December 31

$311k Vol.
$49k Liq.
🔥$82k today
26
Ends in 3 months
F
Frontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?

20%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$385 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of November?

50%

Other

$4k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
T
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of November?

50%

Other

$2k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 2 months