Safe Superintelligence 预测与赔率· 102 个市场

S
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?

SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?

14%

Yes

$4k 交易量
$199 流动性
3 个月后结束
S
SSI public model released by…?

SSI public model released by…?

19%

October 31

$100k 交易量
$6k 流动性
2
大约 1 个月后结束
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

44%

October 31

$4k 交易量
$2k 流动性
1
大约 1 个月后结束
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

86%

October 31

$11k 交易量
$2k 流动性
2
大约 1 个月后结束
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

49%

0

$137k 交易量
$64k 流动性
3 个月后结束
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

26%

OpenAI

$9k 交易量
$5k 流动性
1
大约 1 个月后结束
W
Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

33%

Hadamard Matrix Conjecture

$27k 交易量
$17k 流动性
3 个月后结束
A
AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

84%

December 31, 2027

$301k 交易量
$18k 流动性
超过 1 年后结束
W
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

61%

Hodge Conjecture

$179k 交易量
$23k 流动性
超过 1 年后结束
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

15%

OpenAI

$2k 交易量
$1k 流动性
3 个月后结束
F
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

25%

Yes

$114 交易量
$131 流动性
3 个月后结束
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

17%

December 31, 2026

$2k 交易量
$2k 流动性
超过 1 年后结束
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$72 交易量
$442 流动性
3 个月后结束
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$122 交易量
$782 流动性
3 个月后结束
H
Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

25%

55%+

$66k 交易量
$4k 流动性
3 个月后结束
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

60%

OpenAI

$495 交易量
$1k 流动性
超过 1 年后结束
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

35%

Google

$61k 交易量
$47k 流动性
2
大约 1 个月后结束
H
Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

78%

55%+

$108k 交易量
$8k 流动性
2
3 个月后结束
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

55%

2

$11k 交易量
$7k 流动性
9 天后结束
C
ChatGPT Full Outage by...?

ChatGPT Full Outage by...?

10%

Yes

$18k 交易量
$250 流动性
9 天后结束