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AI Development 预测与赔率· 110 个市场

O

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

14%

Yes

$265k 交易量

$22k 流动性

30

3 个月后结束

C

Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

32%

Yes

$318 交易量

$149 流动性

3 个月后结束

U

Politics·AI Regulation

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

11%

Yes

$133k 交易量

$33k 流动性

3 个月后结束

E

Elon Musk signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?

2%

Yes

$11k 交易量

$2k 流动性

10 天后结束

S

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

52%

Anthropic

$5k 交易量

$7k 流动性

2 个月后结束

S

Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?

4%

Yes

$9k 交易量

$4k 流动性

10 天后结束

S

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

60%

Anthropic

$25k 交易量

$9k 流动性

大约 1 个月后结束

T

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

50%

Other

$3k 交易量

$3k 流动性

2 个月后结束

T

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

50%

Other

$40k 交易量

$7k 流动性

大约 1 个月后结束

O

OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

59%

OpenAI

$491 交易量

$1k 流动性

超过 1 年后结束

W

Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

28%

Google

$59k 交易量

$52k 流动性

2

大约 1 个月后结束

S

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

61%

Anthropic

$81k 交易量

$15k 流动性

10 天后结束

T

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

65%

Alibaba

$47k 交易量

$10k 流动性

10 天后结束

O

OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

26%

December 31, 2026

$1k 交易量

$1k 流动性

超过 1 年后结束

T

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

14%

December 31

$2k 交易量

$1k 流动性

3 个月后结束

W

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

28%

December 31, 2026

$415k 交易量

$11k 流动性

43

3 个月后结束

W

Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?

62%

OpenAI

$76k 交易量

$11k 流动性

大约 1 个月后结束

W

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

26%

OpenAI

$9k 交易量

$5k 流动性

1

大约 1 个月后结束

W

Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

14%

Meta

$2k 交易量

$1k 流动性

3 个月后结束

W

Crypto·token launch

Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027?

4%

Yes

$9k 交易量

$584 流动性

3 个月后结束

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