US Law Predictions & Odds· 118 markets

C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

25%

Yes

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W
Which bills will become law in 2026?

Which bills will become law in 2026?

45%

AI-chip export licensing

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C
Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

17%

Yes

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B
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

61%

Democrats Sweep

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W
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

16%

Alex Padilla

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U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

11%

Yes

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S
Senate passes Clarity Act by...?

Senate passes Clarity Act by...?

8%

October 31

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W
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

25%

Mexico

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W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

95%

Yes

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U
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

99%

September 20

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U
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

50%

September 3

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R
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

3%

Yes

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D
DOJ fines Nvidia over Groq deal in 2026?

DOJ fines Nvidia over Groq deal in 2026?

9%

Yes

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S
SPLC found guilty in 2026?

SPLC found guilty in 2026?

8%

Yes

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W
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

6%

Yes

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T
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by ___?

2%

Yes

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U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

6%

Yes

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U
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

11%

Yes

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O
OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026?

OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026?

28%

Yes

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B
Blue tsunami in 2026?

Blue tsunami in 2026?

51%

Yes

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