Trade Deal Predictions & Odds· 102 markets

W
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

20%

Mexico

$393k Vol.
$118k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

91%

Yes

$264k Vol.
$51k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

20%

≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)

$948k Vol.
$139k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
U
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?

44%

December 31

$191k Vol.
$29k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
U
US x Cuba economic deal by...?

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

12%

Yes

$435k Vol.
$1k Liq.
19
Ends in 3 months
T
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

12%

Yes

$56k Vol.
$1k Liq.
5
Ends in 4 months
W
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

8%

Yes

$824k Vol.
$38k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo

Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo

5%

Yes

$622k Vol.
$21k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

5%

December 31

$662k Vol.
$18k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
M
MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

14%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.
$224 Liq.
135
Ends in 3 months
U
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?

8%

Yes

$39k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump announces Canada tariff decrease by...?

60%

December 31

$1k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?

Iran · Trump

Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?

8%

Yes

$13k Vol.
$538 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

12%

Yes

$32k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

4%

Yes

$150k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
N
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

82%

Yes

$795k Vol.
$42k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump announces Canada tariff increase by...?

60%

October 31

$3k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump x Taliban mineral deal signed in 2026?

Trump x Taliban mineral deal signed in 2026?

9%

Yes

$348 Vol.
$8k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
G
Greenland deal text released by...?

Greenland deal text released by...?

86%

September 30

$29k Vol.
$14k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 days
W
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

10%

Kuwait

$1.7m Vol.
$145k Liq.
Ends in 3 months