Third Party Predictions & Odds· 226 markets

W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

35%

Google

$61k Vol.
$46k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
N
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place

New Zealand Election: 3rd Place

52%

New Zealand First Party

$16k Vol.
$40k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 months
R
Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

99%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

$256k Vol.
$45k Liq.
2
Ended
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

17%

December 31, 2026

$2k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
B
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

46%

Renan Santos

$1.3m Vol.
$643k Liq.
146
Ends in 12 days
T
Trump bans more news outlets from White House by September 30?

13%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 9 days
S
Senate Three-Way Combo: Texas, Michigan, Maine

50%

Other

$2k Vol.
$72k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
C
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by...?

83%

October 31

$6k Vol.
$17k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

60%

OpenAI

$495 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
A
Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner

Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner

82%

Democrat

$2k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
K
Kennedy Center demolition announced by...?

32%

December 31

$621 Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Jim Jordan run for Republican House Leader?

65%

Yes

$391 Vol.
$42 Liq.
Ends in 4 months
T
Trump announces Canada tariff decrease by...?

60%

December 31

$1k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump announces Canada tariff increase by...?

60%

October 31

$3k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
Oregon Senate Election Winner

Oregon Senate Election Winner

98%

Jeff Merkley (D)

$7k Vol.
$52k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
I
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

37%

Yes

$13k Vol.
$916 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

3%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
B
Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

50%

Party A

$2k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 13 days
M
Minnesota Senate and Governor Combo

Minnesota Senate and Governor Combo

92%

Dems sweep

$9k Vol.
$83k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
G
Georgia Senate and Governor Combo

Georgia Senate and Governor Combo

56%

Dems sweep

$7k Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in 6 months