State Of Union Predictions & Odds· 108 markets

L
Longest applause at State of the Union?

36%

70 - 90 seconds

$2k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ended
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

14%

Iran Reconstruction Funding

$901k Vol.
$267k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of Xi summit?

2%

Yes

$685 Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 18 days
W
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?

Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?

1%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$19k Liq.
4
Ends in 18 days
U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

6%

Yes

$39k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which party will win young men in the midterms?

78%

Democrats

$2k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
"
"I beat Bush" Epstein Email Sender confirmed as ___ ?

76%

Not revealed in 2026

$17k Vol.
$43k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
P
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by...?

Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by...?

5%

Yes

$138k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?

Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?

5%

Yes

$5k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 18 days
S
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on September 21?

99%

$740

$1k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 2 days
W
Which party will win older women in the midterms?

86%

Democrats

$478 Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
P
Pete Hegseth impeached by...?

Politics

Pete Hegseth impeached by...?

4%

Yes

$171k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What will Trump post this week? (September 14 - September 20)

53%

Communist / Communism

$6k Vol.
$168 Liq.
Ends in 1 day
U
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

60%

December 31

$29.5m Vol.
$487k Liq.
🔥$242k today
573
Ends in 3 months
S
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

96%

October 31

$690k Vol.
$42k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
I
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

5%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$10k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
C
Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?

Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?

9%

Yes

$64 Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in over 2 years
W
What will Trump post this week? (September 21 - September 27)

91%

China

$996 Vol.
$725 Liq.
Ends in 8 days
W
Will "DataRepublican" publicly testify before congress by October 31?

5%

Yes

$387 Vol.
$9k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
B
Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?

90%

Up

$2k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 4 months