Robot Dreams Predictions & Odds· 102 markets

W
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

14%

Yes

$127k Vol.
$4k Liq.
16
Ends in 3 months
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

14%

October 15

$5k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?

14%

Yes

$32k Vol.
$166 Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
W
Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

13%

#3

$247k Vol.
$21k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

9%

Yes

$38k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Frontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?

33%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$476 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

60%

OpenAI

$495 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

56%

0

$159k Vol.
$68k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
N
Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

34%

1470+

$52k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of November?

86%

OpenAI

$4k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

31%

Google

$79k Vol.
$5k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
T
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of November?

50%

Other

$2k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
S
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

62%

Z.ai

$137k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 6 days
S
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of November?

50%

Other

$4k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

15%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$647 Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
T
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

77%

Moonshot

$65k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 6 days
U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

11%

Yes

$167k Vol.
$40k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

50%

Other

$32k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
N
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?

94%

1480+

$189k Vol.
$12k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
O
Oscars: Best Animated Feature Film

The Boy and the Heron

$17k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended