Robot Dreams Predictions & Odds· 102 markets

W
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

11%

Yes

$126k Vol.
$4k Liq.
16
Ends in 3 months
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

28%

October 31

$5k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?

14%

Yes

$32k Vol.
$123 Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

53%

Anthropic

$6k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

50%

Other

$3k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
O
OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

79%

October 31, 2026

$4k Vol.
$3k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

13%

#3

$247k Vol.
$25k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

60%

OpenAI

$495 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

10%

Yes

$37k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
N
Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

37%

1470+

$44k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

50%

0

$148k Vol.
$61k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of November?

86%

OpenAI

$4k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

27%

Google

$73k Vol.
$35k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
S
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

75%

Z.ai

$135k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
T
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of November?

50%

Other

$2k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
S
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of November?

50%

Other

$4k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

14%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$603 Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
T
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

74%

Moonshot

$64k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

77%

Anthropic

$93k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

57%

Alibaba

$50k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 7 days