Robot Dreams Predictions & Odds· 102 markets

W
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

11%

Yes

$126k Vol.
$2k Liq.
16
Ends in 3 months
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

18%

October 31

$5k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?

13%

Yes

$32k Vol.
$140 Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

53%

Anthropic

$6k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

50%

Other

$3k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
O
OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

79%

October 31, 2026

$4k Vol.
$3k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

13%

#3

$247k Vol.
$24k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

60%

OpenAI

$495 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

10%

Yes

$37k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
N
Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

34%

1470+

$44k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

59%

0

$151k Vol.
$56k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of November?

86%

OpenAI

$4k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

27%

Google

$74k Vol.
$10k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
S
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

66%

Z.ai

$136k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
T
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of November?

50%

Other

$2k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
S
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of November?

50%

Other

$4k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

14%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$617 Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
T
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

73%

Moonshot

$64k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

64%

Anthropic

$96k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

79%

Alibaba

$59k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 7 days