Robot Dreams Predictions & Odds· 102 markets

W
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

11%

Yes

$126k Vol.
$4k Liq.
16
Ends in 3 months
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

27%

October 31

$5k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?

14%

Yes

$32k Vol.
$125 Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
W
Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

13%

#3

$247k Vol.
$25k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

10%

Yes

$37k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Frontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?

34%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$386 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

60%

OpenAI

$495 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

50%

0

$148k Vol.
$61k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
N
Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

36%

1470+

$44k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of November?

86%

OpenAI

$4k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

27%

Google

$73k Vol.
$38k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
T
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of November?

50%

Other

$2k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
S
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

75%

Z.ai

$135k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
S
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of November?

50%

Other

$4k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

15%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$566 Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
T
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

74%

Moonshot

$64k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

13%

Yes

$165k Vol.
$30k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

50%

Other

$32k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
N
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?

93%

1480+

$183k Vol.
$8k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
O
Oscars: Best Animated Feature Film

The Boy and the Heron

$17k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended