Negotiations Predictions & Odds· 127 markets

I
Iceland EU referendum passes?

Iceland EU referendum passes?

0%

Yes

$278k Vol.
$31k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

68%

December 31

$775k Vol.
$69k Liq.
36
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Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

64%

March 31, 2027

$11.8m Vol.
$180k Liq.
🔥$86k today
Ends in 6 months
W
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

84%

No Meeting by September 30

$6.4m Vol.
$638k Liq.
🔥$125k today
Ends in 10 days
W
Who will Trump speak to in September?

Who will Trump speak to in September?

100%

Xi Jinping

$160k Vol.
$143k Liq.
Ends in 9 days
W
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?

19%

Yes

$119k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

5%

December 31

$662k Vol.
$18k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

6%

Yes

$39k Vol.
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W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

26%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
S
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

18%

October 31

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Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

14%

December 31

$2.0m Vol.
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35
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R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

71%

December 31, 2027

$7.8m Vol.
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🔥$56k today
216
Ends in 9 months
U
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

91%

Yes

$263k Vol.
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Ends in 3 months
I
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

3%

September 30

$13k Vol.
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1
Ends in 9 days
W
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

8%

Yes

$824k Vol.
$38k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

20%

Mexico

$393k Vol.
$119k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...?

30%

Yes

$38k Vol.
$638 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
U
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?

46%

December 31

$191k Vol.
$27k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
I
Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

8%

Yes

$2.1m Vol.
$15k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months