Diplomacy Ceasefire Predictions & Odds· 101 markets

U
US expels a Brazilian diplomat by September 30?

2%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
R
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

14%

December 31

$2.0m Vol.
$290k Liq.
35
Ends in 3 months
S
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

28%

October 31

$12k Vol.
$42k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

68%

December 31

$768k Vol.
$89k Liq.
34
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

71%

December 31, 2027

$7.7m Vol.
$897k Liq.
216
Ends in 9 months
I
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

18%

December 31

$4.1m Vol.
$11k Liq.
979
Ends in 3 months
S
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?

12%

Yes

$119k Vol.
$337 Liq.
2
Ended
I
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

5%

September 30

$13k Vol.
$31k Liq.
1
Ends in 11 days
I
Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by...?

Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by...?

21%

October 31

$16k Vol.
$387 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
I
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

14%

December 31

$2.9m Vol.
$16k Liq.
357
Ends in 3 months
I
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

93%

September 30

$30.7m Vol.
$149k Liq.
🔥$201k today
292
Ends in 3 months
U
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

93%

September 20

$981k Vol.
$148k Liq.
🔥$724k today
Ends in about 1 month
U
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

50%

September 3

$66 Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

85%

No Meeting by September 30

$6.2m Vol.
$890k Liq.
🔥$199k today
Ends in 11 days
N
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

63%

March 31, 2027

$11.6m Vol.
$215k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
U
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

11%

Yes

$2.8m Vol.
$63k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by...?

14%

December 31

$6k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US x North Korea diplomatic meeting by...?

41%

Yes

$1k Vol.
$206 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
N
North Korea x South Korea diplomatic meeting by...? (direct or indirect)

70%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$143 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

37%

Steve Witkoff

$754k Vol.
$331k Liq.
Ends in 3 months