Humanoid Predictions & Odds· 109 markets

W
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

6%

Yes

$125k Vol.
$6k Liq.
16
Ends in 3 months
A
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?

69%

Anthropic

$227 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 2 years
L
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - VCS Finals Regular Season

Esports · league of legends

LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - VCS Finals Regular Season

$2k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

60%

OpenAI

$495 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

34%

Google

$65k Vol.
$63k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

19%

OpenAI

$10k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

52%

October 31

$4k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
L
LoL: Galions vs Saigon Warriors (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group D

Esports · league of legends

LoL: Galions vs Saigon Warriors (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group D

73%

Galions

$354 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 15 hours
A
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

90%

Anthropic

$82k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

95%

Anthropic

$385k Vol.
$41k Liq.
3
Ends in over 1 year
D
Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO?

Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO?

5%

Yes

$11 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
O
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?

20%

OpenAI + Anthropic

$8k Vol.
$5k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
H
Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

94%

55%+

$118k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
In which month will Anthropic IPO?

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

53%

November 2026

$259k Vol.
$60k Liq.
4
Ends in over 1 year
L
LoL: Solary vs Saigon Warriors (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group D

Esports · league of legends

LoL: Solary vs Saigon Warriors (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group D

72%

Solary

$7k Vol.
$40k Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
A
Anthropic’s valuation end of October 2026?

Anthropic’s valuation end of October 2026?

38%

$1.50-$1.75T

$4k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
N
Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

33%

1480+

$41k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

14%

December 31, 2026

$4k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
A
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

Anthropic IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

90%

$1.5T

$6k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
What will Anthropic's public ticker be?

What will Anthropic's public ticker be?

38%

$ANTH

$110k Vol.
$11k Liq.
4
Ends in over 1 year