Humanoid Predictions & Odds· 106 markets

W
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

6%

Yes

$125k Vol.
$4k Liq.
15
Ends in 3 months
A
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?

69%

Anthropic

$225 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 2 years
L
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - VCS Finals Regular Season

Esports · league of legends

LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - VCS Finals Regular Season

$2k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

60%

OpenAI

$491 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

35%

Google

$61k Vol.
$48k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic lab leak by...?

Anthropic lab leak by...?

11%

June 30, 2027

$24k Vol.
$115k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

26%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

44%

October 31

$4k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

88%

Anthropic

$82k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
L
LoL: Galions vs Saigon Warriors (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group D

Esports · league of legends

LoL: Galions vs Saigon Warriors (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group D

68%

Galions

$0 Vol.
$349 Liq.
Ends in 2 days
W
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

95%

Anthropic

$385k Vol.
$33k Liq.
3
Ends in over 1 year
D
Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO?

Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO?

5%

Yes

$11 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
O
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?

20%

OpenAI + Anthropic

$8k Vol.
$5k Liq.
2
Ends in 4 months
H
Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

86%

55%+

$112k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
In which month will Anthropic IPO?

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

51%

November 2026

$253k Vol.
$59k Liq.
4
Ends in over 1 year
A
Anthropic’s valuation end of October 2026?

Anthropic’s valuation end of October 2026?

38%

$1.50-$1.75T

$4k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
L
LoL: Solary vs Saigon Warriors (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group D

Esports · league of legends

LoL: Solary vs Saigon Warriors (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group D

55%

Solary

$1 Vol.
$459 Liq.
Ends in 1 day
N
Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

23%

1470+

$33k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
A
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

Anthropic IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

90%

$1.5T

$6k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

17%

December 31, 2026

$2k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year