Government Predictions & Odds· 1288 markets

W
Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?

87%

Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)

$111k Vol.
$83k Liq.
2
Ends in 4 months
A
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

93%

Shutdown & Democratic Party

$342k Vol.
$58k Liq.
12
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?

93%

SPD

$10k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?

94%

Linke

$10k Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

11%

Yes

$31k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?

33%

Yes

$33k Vol.
$757 Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
W
Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?

40%

AfD

$40k Vol.
$29k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?

12%

Yes

$35k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
W
Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?

75%

Green Party

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
11
Ends in over 1 year
U
US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?

8%

Yes

$5k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
How many Israeli elections before government formed?

66%

1

$43k Vol.
$63k Liq.
8
Ends in over 1 year
U
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

16%

Yes

$53k Vol.
$5k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
G
Government shutdown by October 1?

Government shutdown by October 1?

2%

Yes

$16k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
W
Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?

34%

S + MP

$18k Vol.
$237k Liq.
3
Ends in 10 months
W
Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

13%

PSD

$27k Vol.
$172k Liq.
Ended
W
Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?

48%

National + ACT + NZF

$55k Vol.
$292k Liq.
8
Ends in about 2 months
W
Which companies will the US take a stake in?

99%

Rigetti

$188k Vol.
$8k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
2
2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

88%

Kuomintang (KMT)

$180k Vol.
$57k Liq.
41
Ends in 2 months
J
Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026

Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026

67%

3.0%+

$30k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 3 months