Gerrymander Predictions & Odds· 100 markets

M
Missouri passes ballot measure to redistrict?

36%

Yes

$95 Vol.
$178 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
M
Maryland passes redistricting requirements ballot measure?

74%

Yes

$0 Vol.
$37 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
N
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?

3%

Yes

$70k Vol.
$12k Liq.
22
Ends in about 1 month
G
GOP's worst Great Plains Senate Race (IA, NE, KS)?

44%

Iowa

$664 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

98%

Yes

$14k Vol.
$10k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?

99%

Florida

$413k Vol.
$208k Liq.
5
Ends in about 1 month
D
Dems' best tossup Senate race?

Dems' best tossup Senate race?

46%

Michigan

$4k Vol.
$45k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
H
How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?

28%

22–23

$695k Vol.
$76k Liq.
4
Ends in about 1 month
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

16%

Iran Reconstruction Funding

$905k Vol.
$285k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
C
Closest Senate Race?

Closest Senate Race?

14%

Iowa

$45k Vol.
$148k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?

25%

Yes

$10 Vol.
$517 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

96%

Yes

$15k Vol.
$760 Liq.
2
Ends in 4 months
W
Which party will win young men in the midterms?

81%

Democrats

$2k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
2
2026 Midterms: House Turnout

2026 Midterms: House Turnout

22%

115-120m

$30k Vol.
$120k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
R
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

3%

Yes

$178k Vol.
$24k Liq.
10
Ends in 4 months
C
Closest Governor's Race?

Closest Governor's Race?

13%

Alaska

$20k Vol.
$130k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
A
Alaska passes ballot measure repealing ranked choice voting?

36%

Yes

$576 Vol.
$400 Liq.
Ends in 6 months
B
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

61%

Democrats Sweep

$12.8m Vol.
$1.4m Liq.
🔥$131k today
292
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which party will win white women in the midterms?

60%

Democrats

$3k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
G
GA-03 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

50%

Person A

$4k Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month