Federal Predictions & Odds· 732 markets

W
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

16%

Yes

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4
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F
Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place

67%

Bia Kicis

$47k Vol.
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1
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F
Federal District Senate Election: 1st Place

91%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$30k Vol.
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1
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B
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District

91%

Flavio Bolsonaro

$34k Vol.
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Ends in 9 months
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

31%

Yes

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D
Daejon Love pleads guilty to federal crime by...?

62%

June 30, 2027

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W
Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?

25%

Yes

$10 Vol.
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Ends in about 1 month
F
Federal District Governor Election Winner

Federal District Governor Election Winner

84%

Celina Leão

$17k Vol.
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1
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F
Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

10%

Yes

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F
Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?

2%

Yes

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F
Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?

Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?

2%

Yes

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W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

53%

4.25%

$6.9m Vol.
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5
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S
Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?

72%

VAT federal decree

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W
Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?

55%

December 31

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W
Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

99%

Rigetti

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3
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M
Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?

7%

Yes

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4
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G
Gavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?

10%

Yes

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1
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E
E. Jean Carroll federally charged by...?

27%

Yes

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N
Nick Fuentes federally charged?

Nick Fuentes federally charged?

1%

Yes

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3
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U
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by...?

21%

Yes

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2
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