Artifical Intelligence Predictions & Odds· 791 markets

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What will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival?

62%

China 5+ times

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T
TIME Person of the Year 2026

TIME Person of the Year 2026

26%

Zohran Mamdani

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12
Ends in 9 months
W
What will Trump say during his Ribbon Cutting Ceremony?

30%

Yes

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10
Ended
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What will Netanyahu say during the United Nations General Assembly?

96%

Nuclear

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What will Cracker Barrel say during their next earnings call?

100%

Reward

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W
What will BlackBerry say during their next earnings call?

98%

Quarter 15+ times

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What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (September 23)

96%

Money

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O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

14%

December 31, 2026

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O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

60%

OpenAI

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O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

18%

Yes

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30
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Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

34%

Google

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2
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C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

20%

Yes

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Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

19%

OpenAI

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A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

19%

October 15

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S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

53%

Anthropic

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T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

50%

Other

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Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of November?

85%

OpenAI

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S
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of November?

Second-best AI Agent Lab end of November?

59%

OpenAI

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T
Trump renames AI by September 30?

Trump renames AI by September 30?

27%

Yes

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T
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of November?

Third-best AI Agent Lab end of November?

50%

Other

$3k Vol.
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