Artifical Intelligence Predictions & Odds· 121 markets

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What will Netanyahu say during the United Nations General Assembly?

95%

Nuclear

$16k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
W
What will Trump say during his Ribbon Cutting Ceremony?

37%

Yes

$11k Vol.
$3k Liq.
7
Ended
W
What will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival?

67%

China 5+ times

$2k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
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What will Cracker Barrel say during their next earnings call?

98%

Quarter 15+ times

$4k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 18 hours
T
TIME Person of the Year 2026

TIME Person of the Year 2026

27%

Zohran Mamdani

$66k Vol.
$534k Liq.
12
Ends in 9 months
W
What will BlackBerry say during their next earnings call?

98%

Quarter 15+ times

$2k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
W
What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (September 23)

96%

Money

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 18 hours
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

14%

December 31, 2026

$4k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

60%

OpenAI

$495 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

18%

Yes

$271k Vol.
$28k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

34%

Google

$71k Vol.
$65k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

22%

Yes

$512 Vol.
$256 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

19%

OpenAI

$10k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

51%

October 31

$4k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

53%

Anthropic

$6k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

50%

Other

$3k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
A
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?

69%

Anthropic

$227 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in over 2 years
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

53%

Anthropic

$26k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

50%

Other

$42k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of November?

86%

OpenAI

$4k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 2 months