AI Safety Predictions & Odds· 103 markets

U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

11%

Yes

$133k Vol.
$33k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

14%

December 31

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

25%

Yes

$114 Vol.
$123 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

83%

October 31

$11k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

47%

October 31

$4k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

26%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

26%

OpenAI

$2k Vol.
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Ends in 3 months
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

32%

Yes

$318 Vol.
$145 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

54%

2

$10k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

28%

Google

$59k Vol.
$53k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
S
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?

12%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$207 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

77%

55%+

$108k Vol.
$7k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
S
SSI public model released by…?

SSI public model released by…?

19%

October 31

$100k Vol.
$7k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

40%

Hadamard Matrix Conjecture

$25k Vol.
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O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

14%

Yes

$265k Vol.
$23k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
A
AI bubble burst by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

12%

Yes

$3.0m Vol.
$17k Liq.
96
Ends in 3 months
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

7%

Yes

$24k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

41%

0

$129k Vol.
$61k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
ChatGPT Outage by....?

ChatGPT Outage by....?

88%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$147 Liq.
Ends in 10 days
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$72 Vol.
$390 Liq.
Ends in 3 months