Safe Superintelligence 预测与赔率· 102 个市场

S
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?

SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?

12%

Yes

$4k 交易量
$161 流动性
3 个月后结束
S
SSI public model released by…?

SSI public model released by…?

19%

October 31

$99k 交易量
$5k 流动性
2
大约 1 个月后结束
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

39%

October 31

$4k 交易量
$2k 流动性
1
大约 1 个月后结束
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

79%

October 31

$8k 交易量
$3k 流动性
1
大约 1 个月后结束
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

42%

0

$112k 交易量
$71k 流动性
3 个月后结束
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

19%

OpenAI

$9k 交易量
$5k 流动性
1
大约 1 个月后结束
W
Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

52%

Hodge Conjecture

$23k 交易量
$17k 流动性
3 个月后结束
A
AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

84%

December 31, 2027

$280k 交易量
$25k 流动性
超过 1 年后结束
W
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

60%

Hodge Conjecture

$165k 交易量
$30k 流动性
超过 1 年后结束
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

14%

Meta

$2k 交易量
$3k 流动性
3 个月后结束
F
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

25%

Yes

$114 交易量
$120 流动性
3 个月后结束
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

16%

December 31, 2026

$534 交易量
$1k 流动性
超过 1 年后结束
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$72 交易量
$501 流动性
3 个月后结束
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$122 交易量
$799 流动性
3 个月后结束
H
Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

35%

55%+

$62k 交易量
$2k 流动性
3 个月后结束
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

56%

OpenAI

$461 交易量
$1k 流动性
超过 1 年后结束
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

23%

Google

$57k 交易量
$44k 流动性
2
大约 1 个月后结束
H
Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

77%

55%+

$105k 交易量
$7k 流动性
2
3 个月后结束
C
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs ShindeN (BO3) - Circuit X Curitiba Playoffs

Esports · counter strike 2

Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs ShindeN (BO3) - Circuit X Curitiba Playoffs

44%

BESTIA

$3k 交易量
$42k 流动性
大约 13 小时后结束
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

51%

2

$10k 交易量
$4k 流动性
11 天后结束