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AI Development 预测与赔率· 110 个市场

O

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

14%

Yes

$266k 交易量

$23k 流动性

30

3 个月后结束

C

Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

31%

Yes

$318 交易量

$526 流动性

3 个月后结束

U

Politics·AI Regulation

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

7%

Yes

$149k 交易量

$42k 流动性

3 个月后结束

E

Elon Musk signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?

2%

Yes

$11k 交易量

$2k 流动性

9 天后结束

S

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

53%

Anthropic

$6k 交易量

$8k 流动性

2 个月后结束

S

Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?

4%

Yes

$9k 交易量

$9k 流动性

9 天后结束

S

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

53%

Anthropic

$26k 交易量

$12k 流动性

大约 1 个月后结束

T

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

50%

Other

$3k 交易量

$4k 流动性

2 个月后结束

O

OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

60%

OpenAI

$495 交易量

$1k 流动性

超过 1 年后结束

T

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

50%

Other

$42k 交易量

$14k 流动性

大约 1 个月后结束

W

Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

36%

Google

$63k 交易量

$64k 流动性

2

大约 1 个月后结束

S

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

70%

Anthropic

$88k 交易量

$38k 流动性

9 天后结束

T

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

66%

Alibaba

$47k 交易量

$12k 流动性

9 天后结束

O

OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

16%

December 31, 2026

$2k 交易量

$2k 流动性

超过 1 年后结束

T

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

42%

December 31

$2k 交易量

$1k 流动性

3 个月后结束

W

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

30%

December 31, 2026

$431k 交易量

$32k 流动性

46

3 个月后结束

W

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

26%

OpenAI

$9k 交易量

$6k 流动性

1

大约 1 个月后结束

W

Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

16%

OpenAI

$2k 交易量

$2k 流动性

3 个月后结束

W

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

33%

1560

$220k 交易量

$6k 流动性

3 个月后结束

W

Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?

66%

OpenAI

$173k 交易量

$50k 流动性

9 天后结束

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