Security Predictions & Odds· 3466 markets

S
Social Security Insolvent by...?

Social Security Insolvent by...?

17%

December 31, 2028

$836 Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in over 2 years
U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

6%

Yes

$39k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
E
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?

8%

Yes

$267k Vol.
$18k Liq.
13
Ends in 3 months
W
Which bills will become law in 2026?

Which bills will become law in 2026?

45%

Credit-card routing competition

$168k Vol.
$69k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
M
MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

16%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.
$354 Liq.
135
Ends in 3 months
N
Number of TSA passengers January 2?

2.5-2.75m

$16k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

26%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
F
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

25%

Yes

$114 Vol.
$124 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

13%

December 31

$1.1m Vol.
$57k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by...?

42%

Yes

$7k Vol.
$56 Liq.
Ended
T
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by...?

51%

Yes

$15k Vol.
$416 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia coup attempt in 2026?

Russia coup attempt in 2026?

5%

Yes

$133k Vol.
$33k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
T
Tokenized stocks available on Robinhood by ___?

91%

June 30, 2027

$2k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
W
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

3%

Yes

$445k Vol.
$59k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

14%

OpenAI

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

12%

Yes

$31k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Iran coup attempt by...?

Iran coup attempt by...?

8%

Yes

$2.1m Vol.
$31k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
U
Ukraine coup attempt by...?

Ukraine coup attempt by...?

6%

Yes

$170k Vol.
$19k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
S
SPY Opens Up or Down on September 21?

SPY Opens Up or Down on September 21?

84%

Up

$112 Vol.
$100 Liq.
Ends in about 20 hours