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Outages Predictions & Odds· 162 markets

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#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

Tech·AI

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

55%

2

$11k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
C
ChatGPT Full Outage by...?

Tech·AI

ChatGPT Full Outage by...?

50%

October 31

$18k Vol.
$294 Liq.
Ends in 8 days
C
Critical Discord Incident by...?

Tech·hack

Critical Discord Incident by...?

32%

October 31

$11k Vol.
$754 Liq.
Ends in 8 days
A
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?

Politics·hack

Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?

37%

October 31

$75k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
A
AWS service disrupted by...?

Tech·amazon

AWS service disrupted by...?

50%

Yes

$10k Vol.
$2 Liq.
Ends in 8 days
F
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

Tech·AI

Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

25%

Yes

$114 Vol.
$121 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
A
Astra removed from public access by...?

Tech·AI

Astra removed from public access by...?

5%

October 31

$3k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022?

All

Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022?

$50k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
Will Twitter report any outages by January 6, 2023?

All

Will Twitter report any outages by January 6, 2023?

$1k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
U
US mobile/internet outages caused by Iran?

Geopolitics·Iran

US mobile/internet outages caused by Iran?

No

$101k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended
J
June 12 internet outages caused by a hack?

Culture · Tech

June 12 internet outages caused by a hack?

No

$14k Vol.
$0 Liq.
8
Ended
I
Iran behind June 12 internet outages?

Tech·Iran

Iran behind June 12 internet outages?

No

$53k Vol.
$0 Liq.
2
Ended
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in August 2026?

Tech·AI

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in August 2026?

<3

$10k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in July 2026?

Tech·AI

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in July 2026?

4

$49k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in June 2026?

Tech·gpt

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in June 2026?

4+

$38k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?

Tech·gpt

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?

<2

$40k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
A
archCloudflare outage caused by state actor?

Geopolitics·hack

archCloudflare outage caused by state actor?

No

$123k Vol.
$0 Liq.
2
Ended
C
Cellular outage on Jan 14 caused by a hack?

Politics·Iran

Cellular outage on Jan 14 caused by a hack?

No

$21k Vol.
$0 Liq.
3
Ended
C
Cuba nationwide internet/power outage by...?

Politics·Cuba

Cuba nationwide internet/power outage by...?

August 31

$15k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
ChatGPT Outage by May 1?

Tech·AI

ChatGPT Outage by May 1?

Yes

$6k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

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