Outages Predictions & Odds· 162 markets

#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

55%

2

$11k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
C
ChatGPT Full Outage by...?

ChatGPT Full Outage by...?

50%

October 31

$18k Vol.
$327 Liq.
Ends in 8 days
C
Critical Discord Incident by...?

Critical Discord Incident by...?

31%

October 31

$11k Vol.
$887 Liq.
Ends in 8 days
M
MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

14%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.
$308 Liq.
135
Ends in 3 months
F
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

25%

Yes

$114 Vol.
$122 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
A
Astra removed from public access by...?

Astra removed from public access by...?

5%

October 31

$3k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
A
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?

Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?

39%

October 31

$75k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
A
AWS service disrupted by...?

AWS service disrupted by...?

50%

Yes

$10k Vol.
$2 Liq.
Ends in 8 days
W
Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022?
$50k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
Will Twitter report any outages by January 6, 2023?
$1k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
U
US mobile/internet outages caused by Iran?

No

$101k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended
J
June 12 internet outages caused by a hack?

Culture · Tech

June 12 internet outages caused by a hack?

No

$14k Vol.
$0 Liq.
8
Ended
I
Iran behind June 12 internet outages?

No

$53k Vol.
$0 Liq.
2
Ended
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in August 2026?

<3

$10k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in July 2026?

4

$49k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in June 2026?

4+

$38k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?

<2

$40k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
A
archCloudflare outage caused by state actor?

No

$123k Vol.
$0 Liq.
2
Ended
C
Cellular outage on Jan 14 caused by a hack?

No

$21k Vol.
$0 Liq.
3
Ended
C
CrowdStrike outage fixed by Noon?

Breaking News · CrowdStrike

CrowdStrike outage fixed by Noon?

No

$17k Vol.
$0 Liq.
23
Ended