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Outages Predictions & Odds· 162 markets

#

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

55%

2

$11k Vol.

$6k Liq.

Ends in 8 days

C

ChatGPT Full Outage by...?

50%

October 31

$18k Vol.

$327 Liq.

Ends in 8 days

C

Critical Discord Incident by...?

31%

October 31

$11k Vol.

$887 Liq.

Ends in 8 days

M

Crypto·Airdrops

MegaETH airdrop by...?

14%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.

$308 Liq.

135

Ends in 3 months

F

Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

25%

Yes

$114 Vol.

$122 Liq.

Ends in 3 months

A

Astra removed from public access by...?

5%

October 31

$3k Vol.

$1k Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

A

Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?

39%

October 31

$75k Vol.

$18k Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

A

AWS service disrupted by...?

50%

Yes

$10k Vol.

$2 Liq.

Ends in 8 days

W

All

Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022?

$50k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

W

All

Will Twitter report any outages by January 6, 2023?

$1k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

U

Geopolitics·Iran

US mobile/internet outages caused by Iran?

No

$101k Vol.

$0 Liq.

1

Ended

J

Culture · Tech

June 12 internet outages caused by a hack?

No

$14k Vol.

$0 Liq.

8

Ended

I

Iran behind June 12 internet outages?

No

$53k Vol.

$0 Liq.

2

Ended

#

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in August 2026?

<3

$10k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

#

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in July 2026?

4

$49k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

#

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in June 2026?

4+

$38k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

#

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?

<2

$40k Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ended

A

Geopolitics·hack

archCloudflare outage caused by state actor?

No

$123k Vol.

$0 Liq.

2

Ended

C

Cellular outage on Jan 14 caused by a hack?

No

$21k Vol.

$0 Liq.

3

Ended

C

Breaking News · CrowdStrike

CrowdStrike outage fixed by Noon?

No

$17k Vol.

$0 Liq.

23

Ended

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