Humanoid Predictions & Odds· 100 markets

W
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

4%

Yes

$124k Vol.
$7k Liq.
15
Ends in 3 months
A
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?

69%

Anthropic

$180 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in over 2 years
L
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - VCS Finals Regular Season

Esports · league of legends

LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - VCS Finals Regular Season

$2k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

56%

OpenAI

$491 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
A
Anthropic lab leak by...?

Anthropic lab leak by...?

12%

June 30, 2027

$17k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

28%

Google

$58k Vol.
$45k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
L
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs 1TAP Dino (BO3) - VCS Finals Regular Season

Esports · league of legends

LoL: Saigon Warriors vs 1TAP Dino (BO3) - VCS Finals Regular Season

$3k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
L
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs ROSSMANN Centaurs (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs
$700k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

42%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

38%

October 31

$4k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

88%

Anthropic

$81k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
W
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

94%

Anthropic

$373k Vol.
$39k Liq.
3
Ends in over 1 year
L
LoL: HMBLE vs Colossal Gaming (BO5) - LIT Playoffs

Esports · league of legends

LoL: HMBLE vs Colossal Gaming (BO5) - LIT Playoffs

95%

HMBLE

$4k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
D
Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO?

Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO?

5%

Yes

$11 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
L
LoL: Galions vs Saigon Warriors (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group D

Esports · league of legends

LoL: Galions vs Saigon Warriors (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group D

66%

Galions

$45 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 2 days
O
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?

20%

OpenAI + Anthropic

$8k Vol.
$7k Liq.
2
Ends in 4 months
M
MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

14%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.
$321 Liq.
135
Ends in 3 months
H
Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

92%

55%+

$108k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

16%

December 31, 2026

$540 Vol.
$982 Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
I
In which month will Anthropic IPO?

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

52%

November 2026

$247k Vol.
$52k Liq.
1
Ends in over 1 year