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Gpt 4 Predictions & Odds· 147 markets

AllRelease DateTechnologyBusinessSam AltmanAIGpt 4Machine LearningGptOpenAIGrokAnthropicGoogleGpt 4.5Artificial IntelligenceTechGeminiChatgptDeepSeekXAIBig TechMathGPT 5AlibabaAlpha ArenaGemini 3Top AI ModelGPT 5.5GPT 5.6AI Releases
W
Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters?

All · machine learning

Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters?

$144k Vol.
$0 Liq.
19
Ended
W
Will OpenAI release GPT-4 by May 31?

All

Will OpenAI release GPT-4 by May 31?

Yes

$121k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
G
GPT 4.5 released by...?

OpenAI · AI

GPT 4.5 released by...?

February 28

$214k Vol.
$0 Liq.
84
Ended
W
Will OpenAI release GPT-4.5 before April?

All · OpenAI

Will OpenAI release GPT-4.5 before April?

No

$22k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
G
GPT-5.4 released by...?

Tech·OpenAI

GPT-5.4 released by...?

March 5

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
146
B
Best AI model on April 24? (Style Control Off)

Tech·AI

Best AI model on April 24? (Style Control Off)

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

$46k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
T
Top AI model on April 17? (Style Control On)

Tech·AI

Top AI model on April 17? (Style Control On)

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

$59k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
B
Best AI model on April 17? (Style Control Off)

Tech·Big Tech

Best AI model on April 17? (Style Control Off)

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

$81k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
T
Top AI model on April 10? (Style Control On)

Tech·Big Tech

Top AI model on April 10? (Style Control On)

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

$48k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
B
Best AI model on April 10? (Style Control Off)

Tech·AI

Best AI model on April 10? (Style Control Off)

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

$65k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
G
GPT-5.6 released on...?

Tech·AI

GPT-5.6 released on...?

July 9

$1.0m Vol.
$0 Liq.
29
Ended
G
GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Tech·AI

GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

No

$76k Vol.
$0 Liq.
30
Ended
O
OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

Tech·chatgpt

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

35%+

$29k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended
O
OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Tech·Math

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

45%+

$43k Vol.
$0 Liq.
10
Ended
B
Best AI model on May 16? (Style Control Off)

Tech·Rewards 20, 4.5, 50

Best AI model on May 16? (Style Control Off)

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

$33k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
B
Best AI model on May 8? (Style Control Off)

Tech·AI

Best AI model on May 8? (Style Control Off)

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

$46k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
A
Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition biggest loser?

Tech·AI

Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition biggest loser?

xAI

$103k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
A
Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition winner?

Tech·AI

Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition winner?

Unknown

$350k Vol.
$0 Liq.
72
A
Alpha Arena AI trading competition biggest loser?

Tech·AI

Alpha Arena AI trading competition biggest loser?

OpenAI

$239k Vol.
$0 Liq.
8
Ended
A
Alpha Arena AI trading competition winner?

Tech·Business

Alpha Arena AI trading competition winner?

Alibaba

$1.0m Vol.
$0 Liq.
87
Ended

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