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Federal Government Predictions & Odds· 627 markets

AllPoliticsDeprec USA ElectionTrumpFedU.S. PoliticsCourt CasesDonald TrumpAICongressOpenAIAnthropicU.S. Supreme CourtUS PoliticsFundingUS ElectionTechDOGEGlobal ElectionsCourtsState Presidential ElectionSupreme Court Fed RatesTrump TrialsPOTUSEconomyHouse RacesMarginMargin Of VictoryPost ElectionTrump PresidencyTrump CabinetHouseGov ShutdownJerome PowellBudget2025 PredictionsDeficitBalanceEconomic PolicyWorldBig TechMidtermsJuly 4U.S. PolticsMinnesota UnrestClaudeDario AmodeiCyberOutClaude Mythos4th Of JulyAI Regulation
How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

Politics·Congress

How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

30+

$2.3m Vol.
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Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown?

Politics·Gov Shutdown

Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown?

Yes

$176k Vol.
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62
M
Major US official out by May 31?

Politics·Trump Cabinet

Major US official out by May 31?

Yes

$40k Vol.
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Ended
M
Major US official out by April 30?

Politics·Out

Major US official out by April 30?

No

$16k Vol.
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Ended
O
Oklahoma Presidential Election Winner

Politics·State Presidential Election

Oklahoma Presidential Election Winner

Donald Trump

$249k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended
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Supreme Court unanimous vote in Trump immunity case?

donald trump · Trump

Supreme Court unanimous vote in Trump immunity case?

No

$19k Vol.
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2
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# of Republican House seats after Election? (brackets)

Politics·Midterms

# of Republican House seats after Election? (brackets)

220-224

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Trump's July 11 sentencing pushed back?

Politics·Trump Trials

Trump's July 11 sentencing pushed back?

Yes

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2
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E
Ecuador Presidential Election

Politics·World Elections

Ecuador Presidential Election

Daniel Noboa (ADN)

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Who will be part of Trump's Administration?

Trump · Post Election

Who will be part of Trump's Administration?

Elon Musk

$7.7m Vol.
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Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by...?

Politics·Anthropic

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by...?

May 31

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What will Trump do on the 4th of July?

Politics·Trump

What will Trump do on the 4th of July?

Insult Someone

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Jerome Powell federally charged in 2025?

Politics·Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell federally charged in 2025?

No

$27k Vol.
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3
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Will Trump ban federal workers from editing Wikipedia?

Politics·Trump

Will Trump ban federal workers from editing Wikipedia?

No

$11k Vol.
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J
Jerome Powell federally charged by August 31?

Politics·Trump Presidency

Jerome Powell federally charged by August 31?

No

$106k Vol.
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W
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?

Politics·DOGE

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?

No

$205k Vol.
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1
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How much spending will DOGE cut in 2025?

Politics·DOGE

How much spending will DOGE cut in 2025?

<$50B

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Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?

Politics·DOGE

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?

No

$203k Vol.
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4
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Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by...?

Tech·Trump

Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by...?

April 30

$247k Vol.
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46
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How long will the Government Shutdown last?

Politics·Minnesota Unrest

How long will the Government Shutdown last?

1+ day

$23.5m Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

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