Emergency Predictions & Odds· 385 markets

W
Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?

10%

Central US (SPP)

$40k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
T
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?

17%

Yes

$200k Vol.
$13k Liq.
16
Ends in 3 months
S
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?

46%

December 31

$2k Vol.
$227 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

3%

Yes

$231k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
N
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

13%

Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms

$24.4m Vol.
$1.5m Liq.
209
Ends in 6 months
F
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

38%

Hike–Pause–Hike

$101k Vol.
$161k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

3%

Yes

$18.4m Vol.
$172k Liq.
569
Ends in 3 months
E
Ebola pandemic in 2026?

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

2%

Yes

$766k Vol.
$57k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
W
Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by...?

16%

December 31

$55k Vol.
$33k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
M
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

6%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$840 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
B
Bank of Mexico Decision in September?

Bank of Mexico Decision in September?

99%

No change

$66k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in 3 days
H
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Fed · Rate

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

62%

2 (50 bps)

$588k Vol.
$198k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
B
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

92%

No change

$21k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
S
Swiss National Bank decision in September?

100%

No Change

$35k Vol.
$83k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
I
Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?

10%

Yes

$987 Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
B
Bank of Japan Decision in December?

Bank of Japan Decision in December?

71%

25 bps increase

$5k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
E
ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

61%

25 bps increase

$15k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
R
Reserve Bank of India decision in October

Reserve Bank of India decision in October

78%

25 bps increase

$22k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 15 days
H
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

96%

0 (0 bps)

$53.2m Vol.
$4.0m Liq.
121
Ends in 3 months
E
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

67%

No change

$178k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month