Economic Policy Predictions & Odds· 106 markets

U
US x Cuba economic deal by...?

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

12%

Yes

$435k Vol.
$2k Liq.
19
Ends in 3 months
I
Israel Election: Reservists–New Economic Party vote share?

47%

<2.75%

$540 Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
U
US economic state at the end of 2026?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

77%

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

$91k Vol.
$10k Liq.
7
Ends in 4 months
W
Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

67%

Together

$2k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
W
Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

89%

Ra'am

$4k Vol.
$30k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
B
Bank of Israel Decision in October?

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

78%

No Change

$29k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 29 days
P
PPI YoY - September 2026

PPI YoY - September 2026

34%

5.9%+

$12k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 24 days
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

17%

Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)

$951k Vol.
$141k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
M
MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

12%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.
$338 Liq.
135
Ends in 3 months
R
Reserve Bank of India decision in October

Reserve Bank of India decision in October

76%

25 bps increase

$21k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 15 days
B
Bank of Japan Decision in October?

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

84%

No change

$129k Vol.
$72k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

55%

None before 2027

$71k Vol.
$265k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
J
Japan recession in 2026?

Japan recession in 2026?

4%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$143 Liq.
1
Ends in 7 months
C
Core PCE MoM - August 2026

Core PCE MoM - August 2026

69%

0.3%

$18k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
U
UK Recession in 2026?

UK Recession in 2026?

4%

Yes

$13k Vol.
$4k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
U
US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

9%

Yes

$2.0m Vol.
$39k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Core PCE YoY - August 2026

Core PCE YoY - August 2026

34%

3.4%

$42k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
E
Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

50%

0-1.0%

$54k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
B
Bank of Brazil decision in November?

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

71%

25 bps decrease

$23k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
What price will Pump.fun hit in 2026?

What price will Pump.fun hit in 2026?

64%

↓ 0.0030

$193k Vol.
$24k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months