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Debt Ceiling Predictions & Odds· 111 markets

AllPoliticsTrumpElectionsFedU.S. PoliticsElon MuskUS GovernmentGovernmentCongressUS ElectionFed RatesGeopoliticsEconomyFOMCCreatorsTrump PresidencyHouseAll InParlaysGov ShutdownJerome PowellDebt Ceiling2025 PredictionsDebtRecurringEconomic PolicyWorldBig Beautiful BillTrump Vs ElonMidtermsKevin Warsh20 (50) DailyCPI Release
P
Peak US National Debt before 2027?

Politics·Recurring

Peak US National Debt before 2027?

57%

$41 trillion

$18k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US defaults on debt by 2027?

Politics·Recurring

US defaults on debt by 2027?

2%

Yes

$18k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
N
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

World·20 (50) daily

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

82%

Yes

$793k Vol.
$40k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
A
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Politics·Recurring

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

8%

Yes

$14k Vol.
$435 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
E
EU debt downgrade before 2027?

Economy · World

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

23%

Yes

$1k Vol.
$180 Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
S
Social Security Insolvent by...?

Social Security Insolvent by...?

17%

December 31, 2028

$836 Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in over 2 years
A
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Politics·US Election

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

93%

Shutdown & Democratic Party

$342k Vol.
$50k Liq.
12
Ends in about 1 month
F
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Economy·Fed

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

35%

Hike–Hike–Hike

$94k Vol.
$111k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will 140 or more House Republicans vote for the debt ceiling deal by June 4?

All

Will 140 or more House Republicans vote for the debt ceiling deal by June 4?

Yes

$3k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
Will the US debt ceiling be raised or suspended by October 18th?

All

Will the US debt ceiling be raised or suspended by October 18th?

$2k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W

All

Will a US debt ceiling raise be enacted by December 15th?

$10k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
U
US debt ceiling hike by...?

All

US debt ceiling hike by...?

July 1

$497k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
D
Debt ceiling raised or suspended before July?

Politics·Trump Presidency

Debt ceiling raised or suspended before July?

No

$11k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
D
Debt ceiling abolished before Trump inauguration?

Politics·Trump Presidency

Debt ceiling abolished before Trump inauguration?

No

$345k Vol.
$0 Liq.
10
Ended
D
Debt ceiling raised or suspended by inauguration?

Politics·Debt Ceiling

Debt ceiling raised or suspended by inauguration?

No

$492k Vol.
$0 Liq.
8
Ended
D
Debt ceiling raised or suspended before June?

Politics·Trump Presidency

Debt ceiling raised or suspended before June?

No

$95k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
What will be in the next reconciliation bill?

Politics·Trump

What will be in the next reconciliation bill?

End Tax on Tips

$321k Vol.
$0 Liq.
3
Ended
P
Peak US National Debt this year?

Politics·Trump vs Elon

Peak US National Debt this year?

$37 trillion

$131k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
U
US defaults on debt in 2025?

Politics·us government

US defaults on debt in 2025?

No

$138k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?

Economy·Creators

Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?

Yes

$656k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

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