Debt Ceiling Predictions & Odds· 105 markets

E
EU debt downgrade before 2027?

Economy · World

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

24%

Yes

$1k Vol.
$190 Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
A
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

8%

Yes

$14k Vol.
$440 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US defaults on debt by 2027?

US defaults on debt by 2027?

2%

Yes

$18k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
P
Peak US National Debt before 2027?

Peak US National Debt before 2027?

57%

$41 trillion

$18k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What price will Cap hit in 2026?

What price will Cap hit in 2026?

49%

↓ $0.03

$17k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

16%

Iran Reconstruction Funding

$905k Vol.
$289k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
N
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

82%

Yes

$792k Vol.
$40k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
A
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

93%

Shutdown & Democratic Party

$342k Vol.
$40k Liq.
12
Ends in about 1 month
S
Social Security Insolvent by...?

Social Security Insolvent by...?

17%

December 31, 2028

$394 Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in over 2 years
F
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

37%

Hike–Pause–Hike

$90k Vol.
$144k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What floor price will Pudgy Penguins hit before 2027?

17%

↓ 2 ETH

$4k Vol.
$404 Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
B
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

61%

Democrats Sweep

$12.8m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$115k today
292
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

96%

Yes

$15k Vol.
$795 Liq.
2
Ends in 4 months
W
Which party will win young men in the midterms?

81%

Democrats

$2k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
R
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?

70%

Yes

$6k Vol.
$2k Liq.
6
Ends in about 14 hours
H
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

83%

5.40%

$33k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

96%

4.90%

$22k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?

72%

5.05%

$54k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
H
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?

60%

5.39%

$37k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
H
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?

57%

Yes

$21k Vol.
$470 Liq.
Ends in 10 days