Debt Ceiling Predictions & Odds· 105 markets

E
EU debt downgrade before 2027?

Economy · World

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

24%

Yes

$1k Vol.
$122 Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
A
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

8%

Yes

$14k Vol.
$433 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US defaults on debt by 2027?

US defaults on debt by 2027?

2%

Yes

$18k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
P
Peak US National Debt before 2027?

Peak US National Debt before 2027?

57%

$41 trillion

$18k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What price will Cap hit in 2026?

What price will Cap hit in 2026?

49%

↓ $0.03

$17k Vol.
$960 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

17%

Dilution of Iran's Uranium

$944k Vol.
$227k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
N
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

82%

Yes

$793k Vol.
$38k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
A
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

93%

Shutdown & Democratic Party

$342k Vol.
$52k Liq.
12
Ends in about 1 month
W
What floor price will Pudgy Penguins hit before 2027?

17%

↓ 2 ETH

$4k Vol.
$404 Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
S
Social Security Insolvent by...?

Social Security Insolvent by...?

17%

December 31, 2028

$394 Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in over 2 years
B
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

61%

Democrats Sweep

$12.8m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$154k today
292
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

97%

Yes

$15k Vol.
$9k Liq.
2
Ends in 4 months
R
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?

96%

Yes

$13k Vol.
$14k Liq.
6
Ends in about 3 hours
H
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

83%

5.40%

$34k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

88%

4.90%

$25k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?

75%

5.05%

$55k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
H
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?

60%

5.39%

$37k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
H
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?

57%

Yes

$21k Vol.
$458 Liq.
Ends in 10 days
H
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

73%

5.1%

$530k Vol.
$40k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
California Immunology Research Bond Proposition

62%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 6 months