Climate Science Predictions & Odds· 102 markets

W
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?

10%

Yes

$14k Vol.
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Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?

23%

Yes

$43 Vol.
$337 Liq.
Ends in 9 months
F
First snow of the 2026 season

First snow of the 2026 season

99%

Denver, CO by November 30

$12k Vol.
$8k Liq.
1
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S
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

49%

1.35–1.39ºC

$2k Vol.
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W
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

75%

1

$3.5m Vol.
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What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

19%

Iran Reconstruction Funding

$982k Vol.
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8
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MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

14%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.
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135
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September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

98%

2nd hottest

$4k Vol.
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Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

95%

Yes

$9k Vol.
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What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

78%

Over 2.5

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What price will Aster hit in 2026?

What price will Aster hit in 2026?

43%

↓ 0.40

$79k Vol.
$2k Liq.
1
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Where will it rain on September 23?

93%

Miami, FL

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What price will Cap hit in 2026?

What price will Cap hit in 2026?

49%

↓ $0.03

$17k Vol.
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H
Hyperliquid airdrop by ....?

Hyperliquid airdrop by ....?

37%

December 31, 2027

$572k Vol.
$4k Liq.
38
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What price will LAB hit in 2026?

What price will LAB hit in 2026?

6%

↑ $22

$46k Vol.
$14k Liq.
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Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?

81%

Yes

$951 Vol.
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What price will Plasma hit in 2026?

What price will Plasma hit in 2026?

28%

↑ 0.30

$304k Vol.
$924 Liq.
10
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Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

7%

Yes

$147k Vol.
$8k Liq.
9
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Will summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?

98%

Yes

$2k Vol.
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What price will Ethena hit in September?

57%

↑ 0.24

$7k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 8 days