Artificial General Intelligence Predictions & Odds· 104 markets

W
What will Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly?

86%

Terror / Terrorism

$25k Vol.
$16k Liq.
2
Ends in 2 days
W
What will Netanyahu say during the United Nations General Assembly?

92%

Antisemitic / Antisemitism

$6k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in 4 days
O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

14%

Yes

$264k Vol.
$23k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

32%

Yes

$318 Vol.
$139 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

59%

OpenAI

$491 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

27%

December 31, 2026

$1k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
U
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

11%

Yes

$31k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?

12%

Yes

$35k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

7%

Yes

$22k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?

Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?

7%

Yes

$444 Vol.
$396 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

14%

December 31

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

52%

Anthropic

$5k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

50%

Other

$3k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

60%

Anthropic

$25k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

50%

Other

$40k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
U
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

16%

Yes

$53k Vol.
$5k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
A
AI bubble burst by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

12%

Yes

$3.0m Vol.
$18k Liq.
96
Ends in 3 months
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

61%

Anthropic

$81k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

28%

Google

$59k Vol.
$53k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
S
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of November?

Second-best AI Agent Lab end of November?

50%

Other

$5k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 2 months