AI Safety Predictions & Odds· 104 markets

U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

11%

Yes

$132k Vol.
$30k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

16%

December 31

$1k Vol.
$959 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

25%

Yes

$114 Vol.
$104 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

82%

October 31

$8k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

38%

October 31

$4k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

42%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

14%

Meta

$2k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

34%

Yes

$284 Vol.
$316 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

55%

2

$10k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

28%

Google

$58k Vol.
$47k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
S
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?

12%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$135 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

77%

55%+

$105k Vol.
$11k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
S
SSI public model released by…?

SSI public model released by…?

19%

October 31

$99k Vol.
$4k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

14%

Yes

$263k Vol.
$27k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
A
AI bubble burst by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

9%

Yes

$3.0m Vol.
$18k Liq.
96
Ends in 3 months
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

8%

Yes

$22k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

42%

0

$112k Vol.
$73k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
ChatGPT Outage by....?

ChatGPT Outage by....?

88%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$156 Liq.
Ends in 11 days
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$72 Vol.
$486 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
#
#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

50%

Other

$3k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 2 months