AI Safety Predictions & Odds· 103 markets

U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

8%

Yes

$150k Vol.
$31k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

17%

December 31

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

25%

Yes

$114 Vol.
$123 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

87%

October 31

$12k Vol.
$3k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

51%

October 31

$4k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

19%

OpenAI

$10k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

14%

Meta

$2k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

22%

Yes

$512 Vol.
$179 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

55%

2

$11k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

34%

Google

$71k Vol.
$65k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
S
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?

12%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$180 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

78%

55%+

$108k Vol.
$8k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
S
SSI public model released by…?

SSI public model released by…?

30%

December 31

$102k Vol.
$9k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

33%

Hadamard Matrix Conjecture

$28k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

18%

Yes

$271k Vol.
$28k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

50%

0

$147k Vol.
$64k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

10%

Yes

$36k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
A
AI bubble burst by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

21%

June 30, 2027

$3.0m Vol.
$51k Liq.
97
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$72 Vol.
$522 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$559 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months