Artificial General Intelligence 预测与赔率· 122 个市场

W
What will Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly?

86%

Terror / Terrorism

$25k 交易量
$17k 流动性
2
2 天后结束
W
What will Netanyahu say during the United Nations General Assembly?

91%

Israel 10+ times

$7k 交易量
$5k 流动性
1
4 天后结束
O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

14%

Yes

$265k 交易量
$23k 流动性
30
3 个月后结束
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

32%

Yes

$318 交易量
$150 流动性
3 个月后结束
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

59%

OpenAI

$491 交易量
$1k 流动性
超过 1 年后结束
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

41%

December 31, 2026

$1k 交易量
$1k 流动性
超过 1 年后结束
U
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

12%

Yes

$31k 交易量
$3k 流动性
3 个月后结束
U
US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?

12%

Yes

$35k 交易量
$4k 流动性
1
3 个月后结束
T
Trump renames AI by September 30?

Trump renames AI by September 30?

16%

Yes

$362 交易量
$9k 流动性
10 天后结束
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

6%

Yes

$24k 交易量
$19k 流动性
3 个月后结束
T
Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

14%

December 31

$2k 交易量
$1k 流动性
3 个月后结束
W
Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?

Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?

6%

Yes

$444 交易量
$440 流动性
3 个月后结束
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

52%

Anthropic

$5k 交易量
$10k 流动性
2 个月后结束
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

50%

Other

$3k 交易量
$4k 流动性
2 个月后结束
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

60%

Anthropic

$25k 交易量
$12k 流动性
大约 1 个月后结束
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

50%

Other

$40k 交易量
$8k 流动性
大约 1 个月后结束
U
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

16%

Yes

$53k 交易量
$5k 流动性
4
3 个月后结束
A
AI bubble burst by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

12%

Yes

$3.0m 交易量
$17k 流动性
96
3 个月后结束
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

54%

Anthropic

$81k 交易量
$15k 流动性
10 天后结束
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

28%

Google

$59k 交易量
$61k 流动性
2
大约 1 个月后结束