Weather Science Predictions & Odds· 490 markets

W
Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?

23%

Yes

$43 Vol.
$439 Liq.
Ends in 9 months
F
First snow of the 2026 season

First snow of the 2026 season

99%

Denver, CO by November 30

$12k Vol.
$7k Liq.
1
Ends in 2 months
W
Where will it rain on September 23?

Where will it rain on September 23?

99%

Washington, DC

$9k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 16 hours
W
Where will it rain on September 24?

90%

Seattle, WA

$912 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
M
MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

14%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.
$296 Liq.
135
Ends in 3 months
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

18%

1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium

$1.0m Vol.
$280k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
U
US Tornadoes in September 2026

US Tornadoes in September 2026

49%

25 - 49

$224 Vol.
$481 Liq.
Ends in 21 days
W
Which cities face tornado risk on September 23?

0%

Chicago, IL

$3k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in about 10 hours
S
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

49%

1.35–1.39ºC

$3k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
H
Highest temperature in Panama City on September 25?

42%

31°C

$520 Vol.
$28k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
W
Where will it rain on August 10?

Singapore

$4k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
H
Highest wind gust at Boston Logan, September 24 to 28?

81%

40 kt or more

$2k Vol.
$216 Liq.
Ends in 5 days
S
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

98%

2nd hottest

$5k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
W
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

95%

Yes

$9k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
W
Will summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?

98%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$776 Liq.
Ends in 7 days
S
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

98%

October 31

$716k Vol.
$27k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
H
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 25?

65%

26°C or higher

$1k Vol.
$29k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
W
Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?

14%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$48 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

75%

1

$3.5m Vol.
$214k Liq.
27
Ends in 5 months
H
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 25?

41%

28°C

$1k Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in 1 day