Secretary Of Treasury Predictions & Odds· 106 markets

H
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?

9%

Yes

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H
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

17%

Yes

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W
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

63%

None before 2027

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Pete Hegseth impeached by...?

Politics

Pete Hegseth impeached by...?

4%

Yes

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P
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?

0%

Yes

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H
Hung Cao confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by...?

60%

December 31

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Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?

Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?

50%

Candidate A

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R
RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

19%

Yes

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P
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

22%

Yes

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Natalie Harp out as Special Assistant to the President by December 31?

13%

Yes

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K
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?

Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?

3%

Yes

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10
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W
Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

50%

Other

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1
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G
Gavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?

8%

Yes

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1
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H
How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?

22%

4

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W
Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

50%

Other

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W
Who will Trump fire in first 100 days?

Elise Stefanik (UN Ambassador)

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19
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W
Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Pete Hegseth

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1,045
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W
Who will Trump pick for Treasury Secretary?

Scott Bessent

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1
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T
Trump wins and picks Dimon for Treasury Secretary?

No

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7
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Major US official out by May 31?

Yes

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