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Outage Predictions & Odds· 4087 markets

#

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

62%

2

$13k Vol.

$7k Liq.

Ends in 7 days

C

ChatGPT Full Outage by...?

37%

October 31

$18k Vol.

$373 Liq.

Ends in 7 days

C

ChatGPT Outage by....?

87%

Yes

$4k Vol.

$124 Liq.

Ends in 7 days

G

Grok (Web) Outage by...?

50%

October 31

$1 Vol.

$47 Liq.

Ends in 2 months

G

Grok (Web) Outage by...?

60%

December 31

$47 Vol.

$112 Liq.

Ends in 3 months

C

Critical Discord Incident by...?

30%

October 31

$11k Vol.

$754 Liq.

Ends in 7 days

G

GitHub.com critical incident by...?

70%

October 31

$0 Vol.

$98 Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

L

Longest GitHub critical incident in September?

51%

1-3 hours

$23k Vol.

$4k Liq.

Ends in 7 days

U

US Dollar Index (DXY) Up or Down on September 24?

50%

Up

$0 Vol.

$0 Liq.

Ends in about 10 hours

G

GitHub Git Operations critical incident by...?

7%

October 31

$4k Vol.

$274 Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

S

Finance·Equities

SPY Opens Up or Down on September 24?

48%

Up

$75 Vol.

$22 Liq.

Ends in about 9 hours

N

Finance·Commodities

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on March 26?

27%

Up

$3k Vol.

$372 Liq.

Ended

N

Finance·Commodities

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on March 31?

26%

Up

$247 Vol.

$102 Liq.

Ended

R

Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on September 24?

51%

Up

$0 Vol.

$433 Liq.

Ends in about 9 hours

M

Meta (META) Up or Down on September 24?

28%

Up

$469 Vol.

$850 Liq.

Ends in about 9 hours

E

Finance·Equities

EWY (EWY) Up or Down on September 24?

47%

Up

$0 Vol.

$561 Liq.

Ends in about 9 hours

N

Finance·Commodities

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on September 24?

59%

Up

$2 Vol.

$930 Liq.

Ends in about 11 hours

N

NVIDIA (NVDA) all-time high by ___?

86%

December 31, 2026

$5k Vol.

$3k Liq.

Ended

S

Finance·Equities

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 24?

21%

Up

$5k Vol.

$25k Liq.

Ends in about 9 hours

O

Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on September 24?

23%

Up

$218 Vol.

$270 Liq.

Ends in about 9 hours

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