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Mercury Prize Predictions & Odds· 101 markets

AllSportsPoliticsAwardsTechnologyScienceMusicCompetitionAIOpenAIAnthropicPrize MoneyMathematicsCultureUKGrammysGracie AbramsNew ArtistsBest New ArtistFred AgainIce SpiceJelly RollCoco JonesNoah KahanNew ArtistThe War And TreatyVictoria MonetTechArt2026 Winter GamesGeopoliticsSwimmingToday's OlympicsWrtingPrizeAwardRecurringWorldBig TechMathMercury PrizeAI BenchmarksAstraCMIMillennium PrizeAI Achievements
A
Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?

Tech·AI

Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?

61%

December 31, 2027

$70k Vol.
$23k Liq.
1
Ends in over 1 year
O
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

Tech·AI

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

70%

December 31, 2027

$331k Vol.
$149k Liq.
5
Ends in over 1 year
W
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

Culture·Science

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

39%

December 31, 2028

$410k Vol.
$88k Liq.
13
Ends in over 2 years
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

Tech·AI

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

56%

0

$173k Vol.
$60k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

Tech·AI

OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$72 Vol.
$552 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

Tech·AI

OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$559 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
A
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

Tech·AI

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

6%

Yes

$40k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Turner Prize 2026 Winner

Culture·UK

Turner Prize 2026 Winner

50%

Artist A

$22k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
N
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Politics·Awards

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

15%

Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms

$25.0m Vol.
$2.0m Liq.
213
Ends in 6 months
2
2025 Mercury Prize Winner

Culture·Awards

2025 Mercury Prize Winner

Sam Fender – ‘People Watching’

$2k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
Will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August?

All · mathematics

Will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August?

No

$276k Vol.
$0 Liq.
20
Ended
1
100m Butterfly Winner (W)

Sports · 2026 Winter Games

100m Butterfly Winner (W)

Torri Huske (USA)

$28k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended
1
100m Butterfly Winner (M)

Sports · 2026 Winter Games

100m Butterfly Winner (M)

Kristof Milak (HUN)

$11k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
Who will win the 2022 Fields Medal?

All

Who will win the 2022 Fields Medal?

$9k Vol.
$0 Liq.
W
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Culture·Science

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Hong Wang

$879k Vol.
$0 Liq.
21
Ended
W
Will anyone win the ARC Prize Grand Prize?

Tech·AI

Will anyone win the ARC Prize Grand Prize?

Grand Prize Winner (Any CPT)

$5k Vol.
$0 Liq.
3
Ended
2
200m Backstroke Winner (M)

Sports · 2026 Winter Games

200m Backstroke Winner (M)

Hubert Kos (HUN)

$14k Vol.
$0 Liq.
3
Ended
N
Nobel Prize in Literature

Culture·wrting

Nobel Prize in Literature

Other

$39k Vol.
$0 Liq.
17
Ended
W
Will Magnus Carlsen win the Goldmoney Asian Rapid?

All

Will Magnus Carlsen win the Goldmoney Asian Rapid?

$39k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
G
Grammys: Best New Artist

All · Grammys

Grammys: Best New Artist

Victoria Monét

$18k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

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