Mercury Prize Predictions & Odds· 102 markets

A
Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?

Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?

62%

December 31, 2027

$70k Vol.
$27k Liq.
1
Ends in over 1 year
O
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

70%

December 31, 2027

$316k Vol.
$75k Liq.
5
Ends in over 1 year
W
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

38%

December 31, 2028

$409k Vol.
$86k Liq.
13
Ends in over 2 years
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?

84%

OpenAI

$3k Vol.
$582 Liq.
1
Ends in over 1 year
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

63%

0

$167k Vol.
$70k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$72 Vol.
$542 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
A
AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

76%

December 31, 2027

$338k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$559 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
A
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

6%

Yes

$40k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
N
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

15%

Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms

$25.0m Vol.
$2.1m Liq.
🔥$63k today
214
Ends in 6 months
2
2025 Mercury Prize Winner

Sam Fender – ‘People Watching’

$2k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
Will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August?

No

$276k Vol.
$0 Liq.
20
Ended
1
100m Butterfly Winner (W)

Sports · 2026 Winter Games

100m Butterfly Winner (W)

Torri Huske (USA)

$28k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended
1
100m Butterfly Winner (M)

Sports · 2026 Winter Games

100m Butterfly Winner (M)

Kristof Milak (HUN)

$11k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
Who will win the 2022 Fields Medal?
$9k Vol.
$0 Liq.
W
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Hong Wang

$879k Vol.
$0 Liq.
21
Ended
W
Will anyone win the ARC Prize Grand Prize?

Grand Prize Winner (Any CPT)

$5k Vol.
$0 Liq.
3
Ended
2
200m Backstroke Winner (M)

Sports · 2026 Winter Games

200m Backstroke Winner (M)

Hubert Kos (HUN)

$14k Vol.
$0 Liq.
3
Ended
N
Nobel Prize in Literature

Other

$39k Vol.
$0 Liq.
17
Ended
W
Will Magnus Carlsen win the Goldmoney Asian Rapid?
$39k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended