Macro Unemployment Predictions & Odds· 201 markets

M
Macron out by...?

Macron out by...?

4%

Yes

$2.2m Vol.
$29k Liq.
92
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?

6%

Yes

$109 Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
P
Presidential Election Winner 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

21%

JD Vance

$708.8m Vol.
$60.0m Liq.
🔥$221k today
1,037
Ends in over 2 years
V
Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

60%

Nicolás Maduro

$97.6m Vol.
$2.1m Liq.
🔥$128k today
463
Ends in 3 months
R
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

51%

J.D. Vance

$707.6m Vol.
$51.6m Liq.
🔥$102k today
441
Ends in about 2 years
W
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

82%

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani

$1.0m Vol.
$205k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
N
Next leader out of power before 2027?

Next leader out of power before 2027?

37%

None before 2027

$576k Vol.
$635k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

14%

Gavin Newsom

$1.2m Vol.
$852k Liq.
21
Ends in 3 months
A
Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

56%

Javier Milei

$699k Vol.
$210k Liq.
61
Ends in about 2 years
T
TIME Person of the Year 2026

TIME Person of the Year 2026

28%

Zohran Mamdani

$74k Vol.
$559k Liq.
12
Ends in 9 months
W
Who will Trump publicly praise in September?

62%

Bryson DeChambeau

$56k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 6 days
W
Who will Trump speak to in September?

Who will Trump speak to in September?

96%

Ahmed al-Sharaa

$174k Vol.
$129k Liq.
Ends in 6 days
W
Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?

97%

Jon Ossoff

$153k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 6 days
W
What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?

30%

Other

$43k Vol.
$21k Liq.
1
Ends in 2 months
W
Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?

88%

Andy Beshear

$88k Vol.
$356k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
P
Pará Governor Election Winner

Pará Governor Election Winner

65%

Hana Ghassan

$54k Vol.
$115k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
W
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

57%

None before 2027

$74k Vol.
$229k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
R
Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?

96%

JD Vance

$4k Vol.
$51k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
T
Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

87%

Olivia Chow

$187k Vol.
$152k Liq.
10
Ends in about 1 month
W
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

36%

Kristi Noem

$1.4m Vol.
$64k Liq.
Ends in 3 months