Humanoid Predictions & Odds· 100 markets

W
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

6%

Yes

$125k Vol.
$6k Liq.
15
Ends in 3 months
A
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?

69%

Anthropic

$227 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 2 years
L
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - VCS Finals Regular Season

Esports · league of legends

LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - VCS Finals Regular Season

$2k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

60%

OpenAI

$495 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

28%

Google

$65k Vol.
$64k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

25%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

48%

October 31

$4k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

88%

Anthropic

$82k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

95%

Anthropic

$385k Vol.
$36k Liq.
3
Ends in over 1 year
D
Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO?

Dario Amodei out as Anthropic CEO before IPO?

5%

Yes

$11 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
L
LoL: Galions vs Saigon Warriors (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group D

Esports · league of legends

LoL: Galions vs Saigon Warriors (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group D

67%

Galions

$0 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
O
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?

20%

OpenAI + Anthropic

$8k Vol.
$5k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
L
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs 9Gaming (BO3) - VCS Finals Playoffs

Esports · league of legends

LoL: Saigon Warriors vs 9Gaming (BO3) - VCS Finals Playoffs

50%

Saigon Warriors

$0 Vol.
$507 Liq.
Ends in 2 days
M
MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

14%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.
$319 Liq.
135
Ends in 3 months
H
Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

84%

55%+

$113k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
In which month will Anthropic IPO?

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

52%

November 2026

$254k Vol.
$51k Liq.
4
Ends in over 1 year
W
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

14%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$613 Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
W
What floor price will Pudgy Penguins hit before 2027?

17%

↓ 2 ETH

$4k Vol.
$400 Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
A
Anthropic’s valuation end of October 2026?

Anthropic’s valuation end of October 2026?

56%

$1.75-$2.00T

$4k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
N
Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

23%

1470+

$33k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 3 months