Foreign Affairs Predictions & Odds· 102 markets

A
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?

5%

December 31

$77k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

19%

Iran Reconstruction Funding

$982k Vol.
$177k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
M
MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

14%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.
$308 Liq.
135
Ends in 3 months
F
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

13%

December 31

$1.1m Vol.
$63k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

9%

Yes

$3.5m Vol.
$10k Liq.
22
Ends in 3 months
I
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

11%

Yes

$442k Vol.
$37k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

6%

Yes

$39k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
E
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?

8%

Yes

$268k Vol.
$15k Liq.
13
Ends in 3 months
I
Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

8%

Yes

$2.1m Vol.
$18k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
W
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?

28%

Yes

$55k Vol.
$730 Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
I
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

7%

Yes

$239k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US expels a Brazilian diplomat by September 30?

2%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
H
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

65%

8

$1.7m Vol.
$127k Liq.
36
Ends in 3 months
N
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

86%

December 31, 2026

$5k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

5%

Yes

$350k Vol.
$15k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

5%

December 31

$662k Vol.
$18k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

89%

December 31

$258k Vol.
$56k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
Hyperliquid airdrop by ....?

Hyperliquid airdrop by ....?

38%

June 30, 2027

$575k Vol.
$10k Liq.
38
Ends in over 1 year
U
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

4%

Yes

$114k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
I
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

82%

October 31

$109 Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month