Federal Predictions & Odds· 1744 markets

F
Federal District Governor Election Winner

Federal District Governor Election Winner

90%

Celina Leão

$18k Vol.
$108k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
B
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District

85%

Flavio Bolsonaro

$35k Vol.
$211k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
F
Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place

53%

Bia Kicis

$48k Vol.
$91k Liq.
1
Ends in 10 days
F
Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?

1%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

45%

Yes

$741 Vol.
$306 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
F
Federal District Senate Election: 1st Place

89%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$30k Vol.
$112k Liq.
1
Ends in 10 days
W
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

14%

Yes

$83k Vol.
$14k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
D
Daejon Love pleads guilty to federal crime by...?

62%

June 30, 2027

$328 Vol.
$515 Liq.
Ends in 9 months
W
Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?

24%

Yes

$10 Vol.
$507 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
F
Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

12%

Yes

$345 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?

Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?

2%

Yes

$38k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

26%

3.5%

$2k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

51%

≥ 4.5%

$6.9m Vol.
$456k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
W
Which companies will the US take a stake in?

99%

Rigetti

$188k Vol.
$8k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?

58%

December 31

$27k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?

61%

VAT federal decree

$9k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
G
Gavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?

14%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$8k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
J
Jerome Powell federally charged by...?

Jerome Powell federally charged by...?

1%

Yes

$319k Vol.
$3k Liq.
33
Ends in 3 months
M
Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?

7%

Yes

$78k Vol.
$2k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
E
E. Jean Carroll federally charged by...?

27%

Yes

$1k Vol.
$18 Liq.
Ends in 3 months