Federal Reserve Predictions & Odds· 120 markets

F
Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place

62%

Bia Kicis

$53k Vol.
$110k Liq.
1
Ends in 10 days
F
Federal District Governor Election Winner

Federal District Governor Election Winner

94%

Celina Leão

$21k Vol.
$126k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
B
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District

85%

Flavio Bolsonaro

$35k Vol.
$136k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
F
Federal District Senate Election: 1st Place

92%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$30k Vol.
$112k Liq.
1
Ends in 10 days
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

45%

Yes

$742 Vol.
$288 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
W
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

14%

Yes

$83k Vol.
$11k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
D
Daejon Love pleads guilty to federal crime by...?

62%

June 30, 2027

$328 Vol.
$406 Liq.
Ends in 9 months
W
Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?

23%

Yes

$10 Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
F
Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

11%

Yes

$345 Vol.
$407 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?

1%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
F
Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?

Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?

2%

Yes

$38k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

20%

5.0%

$3k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

50%

4.25%

$6.9m Vol.
$145k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
S
Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?

64%

VAT federal decree

$10k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Which companies will the US take a stake in?

99%

Rigetti

$188k Vol.
$8k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?

56%

December 31

$27k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

47%

Hike–Hike–Hike

$137k Vol.
$70k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed abolished before 2027?

Fed abolished before 2027?

2%

Yes

$8k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed Decision in December?

Fed Decision in December?

72%

25 bps increase

$1.3m Vol.
$571k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed Decision in October?

Fed Decision in October?

67%

25 bps increase

$13.6m Vol.
$2.0m Liq.
🔥$1.6m today
Ends in about 1 month