Federal Reserve Predictions & Odds· 120 markets

W
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

14%

Yes

$83k Vol.
$14k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

14%

Yes

$633 Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place

54%

Bia Kicis

$48k Vol.
$109k Liq.
1
Ends in 11 days
F
Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?

Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?

2%

Yes

$38k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
F
Federal District Senate Election: 1st Place

91%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$30k Vol.
$123k Liq.
1
Ends in 11 days
F
Federal District Governor Election Winner

Federal District Governor Election Winner

86%

Celina Leão

$17k Vol.
$96k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
B
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District

91%

Flavio Bolsonaro

$34k Vol.
$202k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
D
Daejon Love pleads guilty to federal crime by...?

62%

June 30, 2027

$328 Vol.
$466 Liq.
Ends in 9 months
W
Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?

24%

Yes

$10 Vol.
$437 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
F
Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

12%

Yes

$345 Vol.
$240 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?

2%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

44%

≥ 4.5%

$6.9m Vol.
$491k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
W
Which companies will the US take a stake in?

99%

Rigetti

$188k Vol.
$8k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
S
Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?

63%

VAT federal decree

$9k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?

60%

December 31

$27k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

39%

Hike–Hike–Hike

$121k Vol.
$219k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed abolished before 2027?

Fed abolished before 2027?

1%

Yes

$8k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed Decision in December?

Fed Decision in December?

70%

25 bps increase

$1.3m Vol.
$785k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed Decision in October?

Fed Decision in October?

65%

25 bps increase

$11.3m Vol.
$2.4m Liq.
🔥$1.2m today
Ends in about 1 month
F
Fed Decision in January?

Fed Decision in January?

56%

No change

$111k Vol.
$440k Liq.
Ends in 4 months