Federal Reserve Predictions & Odds· 121 markets

W
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

14%

Yes

$83k Vol.
$14k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
B
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District

79%

Flavio Bolsonaro

$35k Vol.
$178k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
F
Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place

54%

Bia Kicis

$48k Vol.
$101k Liq.
1
Ends in 11 days
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

14%

Yes

$648 Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Federal District Senate Election: 1st Place

89%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$30k Vol.
$111k Liq.
1
Ends in 11 days
F
Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?

Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?

2%

Yes

$38k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
F
Federal District Governor Election Winner

Federal District Governor Election Winner

87%

Celina Leão

$17k Vol.
$96k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
D
Daejon Love pleads guilty to federal crime by...?

62%

June 30, 2027

$328 Vol.
$422 Liq.
Ends in 9 months
W
Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?

24%

Yes

$10 Vol.
$682 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
F
Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

14%

Yes

$345 Vol.
$212 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?

2%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

48%

≥ 4.5%

$6.9m Vol.
$439k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
W
Which companies will the US take a stake in?

99%

Rigetti

$188k Vol.
$8k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

31%

4.5%

$60 Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
S
Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?

63%

VAT federal decree

$9k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?

58%

December 31

$27k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

40%

Hike–Hike–Hike

$121k Vol.
$248k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed abolished before 2027?

Fed abolished before 2027?

2%

Yes

$8k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed Decision in December?

Fed Decision in December?

71%

25 bps increase

$1.3m Vol.
$886k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed Decision in October?

Fed Decision in October?

65%

25 bps increase

$11.6m Vol.
$2.6m Liq.
🔥$1.3m today
Ends in about 1 month