Ethics Predictions & Odds· 110 markets

W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

27%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
H
Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

29%

55%+

$65k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

29%

Google

$58k Vol.
$56k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
H
Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

45%

60%+

$73k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
L
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group D

Esports · league of legends

LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group D

41%

Solary

$62 Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
H
Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

77%

55%+

$107k Vol.
$7k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
L
LoL: Fuego vs EDward Gaming Youth Team (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group A

Esports · league of legends

LoL: Fuego vs EDward Gaming Youth Team (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group A

1%

Fuego

$273k Vol.
$87k Liq.
🔥$273k today
Ends in about 6 hours
H
Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

90%

55%+

$109k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sinners (BO3) - 1win Private Club #1 Playoffs

Esports · counter strike 2

Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sinners (BO3) - 1win Private Club #1 Playoffs

56%

Alliance

$13 Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
A
Amazon 2026 capex above ___?

Amazon 2026 capex above ___?

99%

$170 billion

$23k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 7 months
C
Counter-Strike: Village vs TenToesDown (BO3) - FRAG Midwest St. Louis Group D

27%

Village

$12 Vol.
$83 Liq.
Ended
M
Matt Gaetz Ethics Report made public in November?

No

$44k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
M
Matt Gaetz Ethics Report made public in 2024?

Yes

$75k Vol.
$0 Liq.
5
Ended
M
Matt Gaetz Ethics Report made public by Sunday?

No

$82k Vol.
$0 Liq.
13
Ended
C
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #5 Group C

Noir Verse

$63k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
C
Counter-Strike: Flame Hard vs Nice Try (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group B

Nice Try

$1k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
C
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Atreides (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #5 Group C

Atreides

$88k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
C
Counter-Strike: EAC Extra vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group C

Esports · counter strike 2

Counter-Strike: EAC Extra vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group C

EAC Extra

$3k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
C
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs Nice Try (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group B

Esports · counter strike 2

Counter-Strike: 6666 vs Nice Try (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group B

6666

$10k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
C
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Elite Klan (BO3) - United21 Group D

Esports · counter strike 2

Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Elite Klan (BO3) - United21 Group D

Gatorian

$10k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended